THIS MATERIAL IS A MARKETING COMMUNICATION.
Wind Turbines Ride the Wave of Chinese Renewable Energy
In recent years, there has been a global shift towards an eco-friendly lifestyle. Wind energy has been gaining popularity and competitiveness.
At the end of 2018, China’s total power capacity reached 1,900 gigawatts (GW), including thermal power of 1,147GW (60.4%), hydropower of 350GW (18.4%), wind power of 184GW (9.7%), solar power of 175GW (9.2%), and nuclear power of 45GW (2.3%). Total electricity generation in 2018 was 6,990bn Kilowatt (kWh), of which non-fossil fuel generation accounted for 30.9%, contributed mainly by hydropower, wind, nuclear, and solar at 17.9%, 5.2%, 4.2%, and 2.5%, respectively.
China’s Influence on the Global Wind Power Landscape
China, one of the world leaders in wind power generation, has the largest installed capacity out of any nations coupled with continued rapid growth in new wind facilities. Benefiting by its large landmass and long coastline, China has abundant wind power resources. It is estimated that the country has about 2,500GW of exploitable capacity on land and 200GW at sea. China is expected to produce 250GW of wind capacity by 2020 as part of the government’s pledge to manufacture 15 percent of all electricity from renewable resources by year-end. The Chinese government has planned a wind power road map leading up to the year 2050. The production capacity of wind power aims to reach 400GW by 2030 and 1,000GW by 2050, respectively.
In China, the Northern region has a vast potential for wind capacity, while offshore wind energy in the Southeast is abundant. Inner Mongolia, situated in Northern China, processes a vast potential for wind power development with an estimated capacity of 1,300GW as well as makes a significant contribution to wind power in China.
The China National Energy Administration initially set a goal for installing of 5GW offshore wind capacity by 2015 as well as 30GW by 2020. However, the plan was executed slower than expected, resulting from the rise of domestic turbine manufacturers with limited experience. Offshore projects are around 2-3 times more expensive than onshore, but they could generate more power due to sufficient wind resources and high-quality turbines. Many industry analysts believe the costs of offshore wind power can come down significantly over the next few years, becoming comparable with solar and onshore wind facilities. Many local authorities in China have been expanding the installation capacity of offshore wind power in recent years, as part of the country’s efforts to tackle pollution and further increase the portion of clean energy in the country’s energy mix. The key offshore wind regions in China are Jiangsu and Guangdong province, where Jiangsu is expected to deliver 10GW offshore wind power by 2020, known as ‘Three Gorges on Sea,’ while Guangdong is forecasted to produce 12GW offshore wind capacity by the end of 2020.
The Chinese government has committed to reducing the portion of fossil fuel consumption. It aims to increase the generation of non-fossil fuel to 50% by 2030, which is under “The revolution strategy of energy production and consumption (2016-2030)” that was announced in December 2016. We expect China to continue to cut new thermal power capacity during 2021-30, and add more wind and solar capacity, which is more economical and flexible, also less controversial than developing hydropower and nuclear power.
The Chinese government initiated the four-tier Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) mechanism for onshore wind in 2009, and the setting of the tariff tier is mainly based on wind resources. The general principle is that the better the wind resource, the lower the FiT. The difference between the FiT and the local coal-fired benchmark tariff is called the renewable energy subsidy. It is compensated by the renewable energy fund under administration by the Ministry of Finance.
Three-North Regions, the provinces in Northern and Western China, have abundant wind resources and plenty of land supplies. The renewable energy subsidy is higher in those regions, considering a lower coal power benchmark tariff and slower power demand growth.
The regions with a shortage of wind resources are those provinces in central, coastal, and Southern China, where have relatively lower wind speed and high land scarcity. Local economic development and power demand are better in those provinces. Lower renewable energy subsidies are given relative to the higher the coal benchmark tariff.
As a result of a mismatch between grid infrastructure construction and wind farm installation, there has been a serious wind curtailment issue in a few Three-North Region provinces. Much of the newly installed wind turbines either could not be connected to the grid or were unable to be used in full capacity. The issue gradually emerged towards the end of 2010, and as a result, the number of China’s new wind connections fell in 2012, mainly in the Three-North Regions. To take advantage of business opportunities in the wind equipment industry, the majority of small wind turbine manufacturers competed aggressively on price in 2010 and reduced wind turbine tender prices.
A proposal for onshore wind tariff adjustments was announced in October 2014 by the National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) with the final tariff, adjustment officially announced in December 2014.
From 2016, wind operators shifted more of their investment focus to regions with low wind speed facilitated by fast-developing wind turbine technology appropriate for regions with lower wind speed and high altitude. As a result of the severe wind curtailment issue, the National Energy Administration (NEA) banned development in six provinces within the Three North Regions. The ban led to new capacity in the Three-North Regions to fall sharply in 2016 as a result of over-investment in 2015 and the halt of new capacity in 2017.
However, preferential policies, including the expansion and improvement of the transmission infrastructure, guaranteed minimum purchases, monitoring, and warning mechanisms, etc. offer an improvement in curtailment rates. The average wind curtailment rate in China dipped below 5% in 1Q19, which is considered a relatively healthy level.
For 2021-30, we expect Chinese power plant developers to force a shift in coal-fired power stations investment to renewables and accept a relatively lower return under grid parity. This is given the Chinese government aims to increase in non-fossil fuel generation aggressively to 50% in 2030, up from 30% in 2020.
Tailwinds for Wind Power in China
Wind power provides many benefits in terms of establishing energy independence. Emission from wind is negligible vs. coal or gas, while the time required to build is relatively faster than other forms of power generation at a timeframe of fewer than 12 months. While the cost of production ranks on the high side, among other forms of renewable energy, it is also coming down fairly quickly. Wind turbines installation began to boom in 2008, with the majority of new turbines installed being 1.5-2MW. Nowadays, new installations are likely to be 2-2.5MW, while offshore wind turbines have a capacity of 4-5MW.
PRC wind farm installations with grid connections are expected to rise to 25GW in 2019E and 29GW in 2020E, from 20.3GW in 2018. Wind farms approved for construction before the end of 2018 have to be completed with a grid connection before 2020 year-end to be entitled to tariff subsidies. Those approved in 2019-20 have to be completed before 2021 year-end. So far, PRC wind power CAPEX was up 79.4% year on year to Rmb70.8bn in October 2019, while public bidding prices of 2.5-3.0MW and 3.0MW wind turbine generator units were up 13-17% in September 2019.
THIS ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES. NOT FOR SOLICITATION, OFFER OR RECOMMENDATION TO TRADE ANY SECURITIES.
This material is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy a security to any person in any jurisdiction where such solicitation, offer, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the laws of that jurisdiction. Investment involves risk.
The information in this material is based on sources we believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee the accuracy of completeness of the information provided. This material has not been reviewed by SFC and shall only be circulated in countries where it is permitted.
This material is intended solely for your private use and shall not be reproduced or recirculated either in whole or in part, without the written permission of Mirae Asset Global Investments. This document has been prepared for presentation, illustration and discussion purposes only and is not legally binding. Whilst compiled from sources Mirae Asset Global Investments believes to be accurate, no representation, warranty, assurance or implication to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy from defect of any kind is made. The division, group, subsidiary or affiliate of Mirae Asset Global Investments which produced this document shall not be liable to the recipient or controlling shareholders of the recipient resulting from its use. The views and information discussed or referred in this report are as of the date of publication, are subject to change and may not reflect the current views of the writer(s). The views expressed represent an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time, are to be treated as opinions only and should not be relied upon as investment advice regarding a particular investment or markets in general. In addition, the opinions expressed are those of the writer(s) and may differ from those of other Mirae Asset Global Investments’ investment professionals.
The provision of this document shall not be deemed as constituting any offer, acceptance, or promise of any further contract or amendment to any contract which may exist between the parties. It should not be distributed to any other party except with the written consent of Mirae Asset Global Investments. Nothing herein contained shall be construed as granting the recipient whether directly or indirectly or by implication, any license or right, under any copy right or intellectual property rights to use the information herein. This document may include reference data from third-party sources and Mirae Asset Global Investments has not conducted any audit, validation, or verification of such data. Mirae Asset Global Investments accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any kind resulting out of the unauthorized use of this document. Investment involves risk. Past performance figures are not indicative of future performance. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. The information presented is not intended to provide specific investment advice. Please carefully read through the offering documents and seek independent professional advice before you make any investment decision. Products, services, and information may not be available in your jurisdiction and may be offered by affiliates, subsidiaries, and/or distributors of Mirae Asset Global Investments as stipulated by local laws and regulations. Please consult with your professional adviser for further information on the availability of products and services within your jurisdiction.
Hong Kong: This material is prepared by Mirae Asset Global Investments (HK) Limited (Mirae HK). Mirae HK is regulated by the SFC (CE reference: ALK083).
Australia: The information contained on this document is provided by Mirae Asset Global Investments (HK) Limited (“MAGIHK”), which is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Corporations Act) pursuant to ASIC Class Order 03/1103 (Class Order) in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients (as defined in the Corporations Act) in Australia. MAGIHK is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong under Hong Kong laws, which differ from Australian laws. Pursuant to the Class Order, this document and any information regarding MAGIHK and its products is strictly provided to and intended for Australian wholesale clients only. By accessing this document and any information or content contained in it, you represent that you are a ‘wholesale client’ under the Corporations Act. This document is strictly for information purposes only and does not constitute a representation that any investment strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor’s individual circumstances. Further, this document should not be regarded by investors as a substitute for independent professional advice or the exercise of their own judgement. The contents of this document is prepared and maintained by Mirae Asset Global Investments (HK) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Australian Investments & Securities Commission. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of MAGI HK. Copyright 2020. All rights reserved.
United Kingdom: This document does not explain all the risks involved in investing in the Fund and therefore you should ensure that you read the Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Documents (“KIID”) which contain further information including the applicable risk warnings. The taxation position affecting UK investors is outlined in the Prospectus. The Prospectus and KIID for the Fund are available free of charge from http://investments.miraeasset.eu, or from Mirae Asset Global Investments (UK) Ltd., 4th Floor, 4-6 Royal Exchange Buildings, London EC3V 3NL, United Kingdom, telephone +44 (0)20 7715 9900.
This document has been approved for issue in the United Kingdom by Mirae Asset Global Investments (UK) Ltd, a company incorporated in England & Wales with registered number 06044802, and having its registered office at 4th Floor, 4-6 Royal Exchange Buildings, London EC3V 3NL, United Kingdom. Mirae Asset Global Investments (UK) Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with firm reference number 467535.
Staying Ahead with Mirae Asset’s Latest Insights
Disclaimer & Information for Investors
No distribution, solicitation or advice: This document is provided for information and illustrative purposes and is intended for your use only. It is not a solicitation, offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument. The information contained in this document has been provided as a general market commentary only and does not constitute any form of regulated financial advice, legal, tax or other regulated service.
The views and information discussed or referred in this document are as of the date of publication. Certain of the statements contained in this document are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements. Views, opinions and estimates may change without notice and are based on a number of assumptions which may or may not eventuate or prove to be accurate. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements. In addition, the opinions expressed may differ from those of other Mirae Asset Global Investments’ investment professionals.
Investment involves risk: Past performance is not indicative of future performance. It cannot be guaranteed that the performance of the Fund will generate a return and there may be circumstances where no return is generated or the amount invested is lost. It may not be suitable for persons unfamiliar with the underlying securities or who are unwilling or unable to bear the risk of loss and ownership of such investment. Before making any investment decision, investors should read the Prospectus for details and the risk factors. Investors should ensure they fully understand the risks associated with the Fund and should also consider their own investment objective and risk tolerance level. Investors are advised to seek independent professional advice before making any investment.
Sources: Information and opinions presented in this document have been obtained or derived from sources which in the opinion of Mirae Asset Global Investments (“MAGI”) are reliable, but we make no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. We accept no liability for a loss arising from the use of this document.
Products, services and information may not be available in your jurisdiction and may be offered by affiliates, subsidiaries and/or distributors of MAGI as stipulated by local laws and regulations. Please consult with your professional adviser for further information on the availability of products and services within your jurisdiction. This document is issued by Mirae Asset Global Investments (HK) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.
Information for EU investors pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/1156: This document is a marketing communication and is intended for Professional Investors only. A Prospectus is available for the Mirae Asset Global Discovery Fund (the “Company”) a société d'investissement à capital variable (SICAV) domiciled in Luxembourg structured as an umbrella with a number of sub-funds. Key Investor Information Documents (“KIIDs”) are available for each share class of each of the sub-funds of the Company.
The Company’s Prospectus and the KIIDs can be obtained from www.am.miraeasset.eu/fund-literature/ . The Prospectus is available in English, French, German, and Danish, while the KIIDs are available in one of the official languages of each of the EU Member States into which each sub-fund has been notified for marketing under the Directive 2009/65/EC (the “UCITS Directive”). Please refer to the Prospectus and the KIID before making any final investment decisions.
A summary of investor rights is available in English from www.am.miraeasset.eu/investor-rights-summary/.
The sub-funds of the Company are currently notified for marketing into a number of EU Member States under the UCITS Directive. FundRock Management Company can terminate such notifications for any share class and/or sub-fund of the Company at any time using the process contained in Article 93a of the UCITS Directive.
Hong Kong: This document is intended for Hong Kong investors. Before making any investment decision to invest in the Fund, Investors should read the Fund’s Prospectus and the information for Hong Kong investors (of applicable) of the Fund for details and the risk factors. The individual and Mirae Asset Global Investments (Hong Kong) Limited may hold the individual securities mentioned. This document is issued by Mirae Asset Global Investments (HK) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.
Copyright 2021. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Mirae Asset Global Investments (Hong Kong) Limited.